Golf begins in Florida this week, which means the Players and Augusta are not far behind. The media continues hyping the big 3/4/5 depending on who won last week and who’s playing this week, but at this point most of the hype should be aimed Phil Mickelson’s way for a few reasons:
1) The ability to go low sets up runaway victories
After getting that pesky major monkey off his back last year, Phil’s out of the chute fast in 2005. Runaway victories at Scottsdale and Pebble were punctuated by course records at TPC Scottsdale (60) and Spyglass (62 – so impressive it left other top pros asking “he shot that where?”) The next lowest round at Scottsdale was a 65 and the next lowest at Pebble was a 66 – this effectively gives Phil a 5-shot and 4-shot cushion for the remaining 3-day tournament.
2) Birdies in bunches
Phil leads the pack this year by making birdies on 43% of his GIR. He’s also one of four players averaging over 5.5 birdies/round this year (Tiger, Ernie, and bonus points for those of you that correctly guessed Tim Clark.) That kind of birdie production allows Phil to play aggressively, knowing that he can bounce back quickly from a bogey. It’s no surprise that his 68.96 scoring average leads the tour.
3) Short game mastery
Phil fires at so many pins and makes so many birdies in large part because he knows that if he misses a green, he’s still got a very good chance of making par. At the same time, his misses for the most part are in positions that make par more likely than double bogey. This is probably the biggest difference between Phil in ’03 and now – his leaves are in much better spots. He’s always made birdies, now he makes a lot fewer bogeys and backs up much less often. Whatever he’s paying Dave Pelz to help him with short game risk-reward analysis, it’s not enough.
4) He’s a great dad
It may seem funny to see this on a list of why Phil’s the favorite for winning tournaments, but is anyone more comfortable with his family-golf balance than Phil? He enjoys his family being part of his tour experience, and he is able to play his best when they’re around. Equally important, he doesn’t let his self-worth get dictated by the outcome of a golf tournament because he knows his family does not care about Sunday’s outcome.
5) The “X” factor
The comments at the FBR and Pebble from competitors chasing him were interesting. Five years ago if you were chasing Phil on Sunday, the odds were fairly good that he could back up or be chased down. The rest of the tour is starting to realize that either of those outcomes is much less likely to happen now. Phil’s hitting it as long as anyone, his misses are in good spots, he hits his approach shots as close as anyone, and his short game is the best on tour. In short, players have to play their best to beat him, and that creates pressure that works to his advantage.
6) Tiger 2000 and 2002
Phil had to watch Tiger take his game to historic levels in 2000 while he was trying to figure out how to throttle back distance and aggressiveness. Then he had to watch Tiger beat him at Augusta and Bethpage in 2002 without his A game on Sunday as Phil made late bogeys. As painful as they were, those experiences forced Phil to re-examine his on-course strategy from tee to green and the resulting change and work with Pelz have made him a force. Still in his mid 30s, Phil watched the best at his best, then learned from it and rebuilt his game to get in contention and handle Sunday pressure at big events. He could be on his way to a historic year of his own in 2005.
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