Buick Recap / US Open Predictions

Thoughts from last week's Buick -

ABC ran a great piece on how the long hitter and short hitter can sometimes play holes very differently, even at a course like Westchester where the premium is on accuracy over distance in most cases. On 15, both Sergio and Vijay took aggressive lines over the trees to cut about 60-80 yards off the dogleg and end up with 9-iron (Sergio) and sand wedge (Vijay) approach shots with a very straightforward look at the pin, turning a 470 yard par 4 into a good chance for birdie. Compare that with Tom Byrum, who had to play to the corner of the dogleg and had a 190-yard blind approach shot. Even on a course where accuracy is required, big hitters can still gain an advantage - admittedly they need about a 300-yard carry over trees, but they can gain an advantage. Hal Sutton's "Vijay dropped the mail on Sergio" after flying it past Sergio's tee shot is an instant classic and proof that Hal's not shy about throwing a little heat at some of the guys, which will serve him well in the booth.

One impressive thing about Sergio's big move on Sunday - he did it playing in the same group as Vijay, which means he'll have recent experience playing with one of the top players and playing well just in case Sunday at Shinnecock leaves him in a similar position. Most impressively, Sergio played the tough 7-13 stretch in 4 under, picking up at least 2 shots on the other competitors near the top of the leaderboard.

Of all the shots that he played on Sunday, the 2nd shot on 18 had to be a big confidence booster. Having just watched Vijay dump a 3-wood into the right bunker and knowing he needed to make 4 to post at 12-under, Sergio pured a 3-wood from 265 that almost stayed on the top level. It came off the ridge and left a tough eagle putt, but Sergio's 2-putt meant 12-under would need to be caught to force a playoff. Impressive stuff under some serious Sunday pressure.

Andy North's shot analysis is a cool new feature. After the player's tee shot lands and while the players are walking out to the fairway, Andy's quick analysis of lie, shape of shot, and any obstructions should help any fan understand some of the smaller details than can make a big impact, like sand-filled divots and over-hanging trees.

The most frightening thing about Vijay's performance is that after Thursday's 63 he made virtually no putts the rest of the week and still finished T-4. Equally impressive was Rory Sabbatini's strong play while the other 2 in his group were going backward.

The Nike ad with Duval swinging the new Nike driver, triggering the car alarm, and Frank the head cover yelling "best contact you've made all year Duval!" is a classic and shows that Duval's got more of a sense of humor than most people think. He will be a welcome addition back to the tour.

Padraig Harrington remains a great player, and his ability to get into a playoff without his A game (or so he says) is impressive stuff with a quality field. He'll win on the PGA Tour, and it might even be a major. However, let's stop referring to the Tiger Challenge as anything other than an exhibition event. Anything with an "elite" (i.e. small and hand-picked by Tiger) field that consists of 16 players might as well be a hit-n-giggle event, because beating 15 guys means nothing. Another Harrington thought - his chip in at 18 to join the playoff was apparently unexpected and the announcing crew got somewhat excited when it actually went in. Now push rewind and imagine how much analysis we would've gotten if Tiger faced the same shot to force a playoff. We would have seen every clutch Tiger shot over the last 7 years - Tiger's putt to force 18 at the PGA against Bob May, Tiger's putt to beat Sergio in the '99 PGA, Tiger's 100-foot bomb at The Players - and if he made it the commentary would've been along the lines of "can you believe that?" And the media wonders why the public things everyone else is boring - as if the media would allow them to be anything else?

Onward to Shinnecock ... the Open approaches ... and speaking of the US Open - a few frequently asked questions you may be interested in before the start of tomorrow's action:

1) Will Tiger ever call Butch? Sure, and probably leave him an expletive-laden tirade if he wins ("Take that, Harmon, I don't need you, I don't need anyone - well maybe Erin, but that was my choice and my idea so back off!")

2) Will Ernie continue his strong play? Absolutely, and he should top 10 - long and straight with a ton of short game will generally serve you well at Opens - for those that forget, Ernie's won 2 already.

3) Will Phil follow up Augusta with more strong play? Absolutely, but we should all be surprised if he wins, his playing weight's down by about 30 pounds thanks to that large primate that's now off his back and he still needs to fine-tune the swing for the weight adjustment (and you thought it was all that working out he's been doing)

4) Will Sergio win back-to-back? No - as good as the 3-wood on 18 was at the Buick (I'm sorry - 265 up hill to about 15 feet after watching Vijay dump his in the right trap - yeah, he's got game) to force OT, nobody goes back-to-back and it won't happen this year. But look for Phil and Sergio to both be in the top 30 and topics of conversation all week. New York fans, still cranky about Bethpage and the notorious "finger" incident, could take vigilante justice into their own hands if Sergio gives the club more than 4 waggles - God help his caddie, hope he's been working out.

5) Will David Duval make the cut? Hmmm, love to say yes, but can't - no way you take 8 months off, fire it back up at the Open, and expect to do anything significant, or do you? Remember - Duval got to #1 and then took much of 2001 off (true - there was a 2nd at that little Augusta tourney, but nothing suggested a win at the British), so maybe he can pull a rabbit out of his hat. One thing is for sure - he will be enjoying himself and whatever happens it will be a great story.

6) Will a European break through at the Open? Maybe, and if he does it will be Padraig, not Sergio (see above). He's playing great (in spite of his protestations after the Buick playoff loss) and will absolutely grind all week long. Plus, the chipping areas off the green are much more Euro and wrist-friendly than deep rough.

7) Can Furyk defend? Sadly no, but we're glad he's there. As above, the chipping areas should allow him to play well - his wrist and the long rough will not get along - remember Tiger pulled out in '95 hitting from the hay, it's not any shorter this year.

8) Will a dark horse emerge? Absolutely, though I'm not sure how long a shot it will be - I like Chad Campbell in the wind, David Toms to re-emerge as a top player, and somebody we've rarely heard of to make an appearance on the back 9 on Sunday - and if we learned nothing from 2003, once you get to Sunday with a chance anyone can close the deal.

9) Who's the new BPNTHWAM (Best Player Never to Have Won a Major) - don't know, don't care but fear not - the media will identify him by Sunday for all of us. It shouldn't be Sergio (too young), Appleby (not yet there), or Monty (too old) - Chad Campbell could wear the collar well, it would weigh a lot of other folks down (Adam Scott - also too young; Thurston - show me some game if you want that title).

10) Who won this thing last time it was at Shinnecock? Corey Pavin, with a career 4-wood. Don’t look for a lot of 4-wood approach shots to par-4s this year.

My fearless predictions - Ernie in a Monday playoff with Chad Campbell - Sergio, Phil, and Toms to all top-30 - Monty, Corey Pavin (sadly), Duval, and Furyk all to miss the cut. Ernie Els - your 2004 US Open Champion.

Originally posted to Blogger on June 10, 2004 - moved to TypePad on July 6, 2004